No points for style

Nobody cares how Manny Ramirez plays LF in Boston. They care that he can smash the ball. Reed Johnson has just gone down with a back injury in Toronto. Preliminary reports are that it's a sports hernia. Ask Scott Podsednik or Todd Bertuzzi how they feel about this one. This injury will take time to overcome, and in the meantime a non-draftable guy just became a serious commodity.

Adam Lind will be starting in left field for the near future (lets say at least 15 games for now). Reed Johnson had no real value to begin with (great fielder, but useless in fantasy). Lind is a hitter of the purest form, and hopefully is glove will be just good enough to keep him the lineup. We're talking a K:BB ratio of about 2:1 and an OPS over 1000. He progressed from A-ball to the majors in the span of a season, and he's a quick study.

I don't have time right now to come up with a list of comparables, but I would compare him to Garrett Atkins of 2006, with a comparable walk rate, and more strikeouts. (Or a higher average/fewer strikeout version of Adam LaRoche). See the link below for peripherals.

http://firstinning.com/players/Adam-Lind-629/

If you're looking for a .300 hitter, decent pop, and you already have bag stealing covered, Lind is a great upside bet, especially in a loaded Toronto lineup. A true X-factor for their wild-card playoff berth this year.

Reed will be out of a starting job when he gets back.

why I will end up as an investment banker...

I never can quite understand the torrent off adds and drops at the beginning of the fantasy season. I can't get over it.

Case in point: Alex Gordon.

In one of my 13-team, 25-deep rosters he has been dropped, I'm supposing over his less than stellar .091 (at time of writing) average. People are more than prepared after seeing 35 ABs to say, ex-post no less, that he "should be sent back to the minors - duh." It's a small sample, but why don't we look past the horrific numbers and reason this one out.

First question: who has a better starting rotation? Tampa or Boston? This is obvious, it's Boston. So is it possible that Gordon has just faced some of the best pitching in the league as his introduction?

Who he has started against so far:
Schilling
Beckett
Dice K
Verlander
Bonderman

yikes. That's a list filled with cy young and rookie of the year winners, and other top #1/#2 starters on contending teams.

When Gordon faced off against Josh Towers, an average starting pitcher he showed the first signs of life by hitting his first dinger in the majors. He played in fantastic weather in Wichita and grapefruit ball...Moral of the story: the competition Gordon will face has probably peaked at a great time for shrewd investors to capitalize. Gordon is real deal. 25-100, and 10 steals is in the waiting. Have faith, the numbers will be there by season's end.

My advice: pick him up or trade for him wherever possible. I claimed him in one league, and have a waiver request (4th priority) and am desperately hoping that other non-actives are letting this slide.

Akinori Iwamura: I let him loose in a few leagues, I had depth at hitting and needed some closers. Proud owner of Al Reyes since pre-season, and as a non-believer in Jorge Julio I now have the encumbent 10K/9 or Henry Owens producing for my team.

Adam LaRoche: playing terribly to start the season. No surprise here, he hit .200 last year in April. If he hits the wire, he makes a terribly cheap CI. Enjoy a 10 dinger July.

Adam Loewen: he's putting it together, finding a way to win, even when not at his best. cutting down the walks and eating the yankees was a treat. a solid 5th starter, and member of my team in deeper leagues.

Fantasy Studs: at the moment my fantasy team is being carried by J-Rol and Reyes and superb starting pitching(Felix, Hamels, Rich Hill, Vazquez, etc.) I'm sitting in third place right now and waiting for my studs to breakout. Guys that are tanking on my team thus far:

-Atkins
-Teahen
-Barrett
-LaRoche

Many of my sleeper picks are off to slow stars, but I wont cut bait on:

-Victorino
-Kelly Johnson
-Encarnacion
-Chris Young

I will try to update more often, but I have a real job now so my baby (roto) has hit the backburner a bit. Keep looking out for posts that will keep you laughing to the top of the standings in a league near you.

As a final point on the Gordon case, let me ask this: how noticeable to fantasy owners was the .264 second half Dan Uggla had? That's what I thought.

Yahoo! Draft (10 team)

I took place in an online yahoo draft today. I missed the first few rounds, but had preranked so I ended up doing well. The only auto-pick I would take back was Carlos Delgado in the 6th round. I had him at 80th overall, but I would have done fine picking up Adam LaRoche in a much later round. Even though I didn't take any pitching I ended up with a solid staff. Other various comments are below. My approach was 'value-drafting', but I think all-in-all I did very very well. I expect 1st or 2nd with this roster.

rank:DP ---> projection vs. actual draft position

1. (3) Alfonso Soriano OF -all considered this is a can't miss first round pick
2. (18) Matt Holliday OF -great had him pegged as #8 overall -- 5 tool
3. (23) Carlos Lee OF -5 tool
4. (38) Garrett Atkins 3B
5. (43) Aramis Ramírez 3B
6. (58) Carlos Delgado 1B - would have preferred a starter here
7. (63) B.J. Ryan RP - last of my auto-picks, should have plenty of opps
8. (78) Jeremy Bonderman SP +20 rank: DP
9. (83) Julio Lugo 2B,3B,SS -versatile, good for 115 runs, 30 steals
10. (98) C.C. Sabathia SP
11. (103) Cole Hamels SP
12. (118) Howie Kendrick 1B,2B - had no 2B at this point (excluding
13. (123) Álex Ríos OF +50 rank:DP
14. (138) Rich Hill SP +70 rank:DP
15. (143) Michael Barrett C - 4th best catcher...15th round. nuff said.
16. (158) Salomón Torres RP - quietly slated to pick up 30 saves
17. (163) Octavio Dotel RP - closing in KC
18. (178) A.J. Burnett SP -outpitched peripherals last year...injury risk
19. (183) Freddy García SP -moved to the NL
20. (198) Joel Piñeiro SP,RP -slated to close for Boston...worth a pick here

Amazing depth and value out of my last five picks. Bush? 238th overall? He'll have a whip under 1.20 this year. Victorino -- great insurance policy on my outfield. Teahen -- some people have him ranked at 40th overall in 5x5 leagues. Gonzalez? I had to...too much value. And finally I took Meredith to eat some innings and provide low ERA/WHIP work.

21. (203) Shane Victorino OF
22. (218) Mark Teahen 3B
23. (223) Adrián González 1B
24. (238) Dave Bush SP
25. (243) Cla Meredith RP



Steals: I locked up steals with the first three solid picks. Lugo (28 sb) Rios (18 sb), Victorino (18) all chip in as well.
Average: no real drains here...well Sorinao and Delgado I see chilling at .270. Other than that I have a bunch of studs. Like Goose in Top Gun, expect with better OPS.


Starting rotation:

-Bonderman
-Sabathia
-Hamels
-Bush
-Hill
-Burnett
-Garcia

wow. Ks and all bonafide sub-4 ERAs.


I think my work is done here...

Value Closers

Brad Lidge - I know, if you had him last year he probably (almost single-handedly) destroyed your whip. We in fantasy baseball like to always bring up the oh-so-lovely 'regression to the mean'. He can't be this bad again, however his image has suffered since people have very short memories. He's good for 35 saves and 100K ...three years ago he had 157...pretty awesome for a closer.

Octavio Dotel - closing in KC. 30 saves here, on the cheap. some durability risk.

Salomon Torres - most leagues have not reflected the roster changes in Pittsburgh to the draft pre-rankings. Other savvy managers know this and will hope to get Sally for a song. Wherever you see him going in average draft position, target him a round or two earlier.

Joe Borowski - he has no competition for saves in Cleveland, BUT he's still not a lock by any means, and there are replacements waiting in the wings. Drop a pick on him in the 14-18th round (12 team)

Bill Bray - he's the favourite in cincy, but not being drafted accordingly. not a sure thing, but worth a spec pick in the rounds where everyone else will be grabbing a beer.

Jonathan Broxton - let us start with the basics: he will give you 100K and about 90 innings of low whip ball. If you can't guarantee saves, this is a decent consolation. If Saito falters, as he may, Broxton could walk in as a dominant closer

Joel Zumaya - Todd Jones is old. He can still do the job, but if he spends any time on the DL, Zumaya could pick up some saves. great peripherals and 100Ks regardless.

Cla Meredith - good for low whip, low ERA, and decent Ks in the National. Hoffman is the first, second, and third option at closer; don't look for "what if" saves here.


and finally the only closer I would take in round 4:

Joe Nathan.

the only guy I see as having next to no injury risk and as a good foundation to your RP staff. start the run yourself on draft day, and then pick up a few value closers in the later rounds. you'll thank yourself.

40 HR/ .250 Average: Don't do it.

Regarding the Funston big board...

How can you recommend drafting Troy Glaus as the 46th best player. He is a HUGE liability at a fantastically deep position. You would have to offset a player like this with a Freddy Sanchez type player, and guess what? The Sanchez homer totals nullify the benefits of your big K slugger right away.

Other liability slugger honourable mentions:
Adam Dunn

Invest in someone like Prince Fielder...on his uptick in age (you can expect a 10% improvement across the board) and an average that wont kill your team.

Other players to avoid:

Carlos Guillen - has regression written all over him
Chone Figgins - not a big board player this year...batting 8th in LA-LA Land. Going to kill his steals and run production. let someone else foolishly waste an early round pick on this guy.


more insights later...

Akinori Iwamura

Yet another prime hitter coming from Japan...I can't seem to find the projection from James on this one, so I'll give a rough estimate of what you can expect from him.

Iwamura turns 28 this week, so he'll be smack in the middle of his power years in Tampa Bay. Matsui is better at taking walks, but looking at him we can see a 30 to 40 point drop-off in average and expect it. Johjima was similar dropping 20 points to his average. I'd also like to touch on his homer numbers as well. The slugging diminutive third basemen's habitat is changing dramatically:

Tokyo; 296 left, 394 centre, 296 right
Tampa; 315 left, 404 centre, 322 right

Long gone are the funky dimensions of his old home, and in with the roomier confines of Tropicana Field. His homer numbers will taper off, 1 HR: 19AB will likely turn into something like 1HR:25AB; accordingly his average may not drop a full 30 points due to the larger field.

I'm calling for a .286 average.

I'm also concerned about his AB totals...right now I'm not comfortable that he gets much more than 500 ABs. I feel that isn't being overly pessimistic or optimistic. Iwamura had some really awful luck about driving guys in last year, and I would lean more in the direction of a correction to his 2005 season numbers.

Plug in these numbers for a modest rookie campaign.

500AB, .286, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 70 R, 8 SB

On draft day there are a plethora, that's right I said plethora, of options at 3B. However, in that packed Tampa infield if Iwamura gets some appearances at 2B or SS during the season (many leagues will add eligibility after one game, others will be five) he becomes much more valuable if he gains 2B eligibility.

Ryan Church - deep sleeper

There are plenty of other good blogs to read, and I don't want to reiterate players that have been covered elsewhere. So I'd like to focus on a player that doesn't get much attention from fantasy pundits.

When you are thinking of investing in stocks, on any level, one of the best sources of information is the management. We don't really have that with baseball players, but what we do have is a look into attitude. It's one thing to have a good attitude, but with investing you have to see what someone says and see if they actually make good on the promise, or the results are what they stated at some point down the road...

Case in point: Ryan Church. He reminds me of Chase Utley of last year's preseason, of course with a different spin. Utley, had great breakout numbers in 2005, but still displayed the thirst to get better. This attitude made him the marquee second baseman of 2006. Church has displayed the maturity of showing up to camp early to earn his roster spot. At 28 years old Church could potentially go either way, but I do project him hitting out of the 5-spot with Zimm/Lopez/Kearns ahead of him. He should get plenty of opportunity to knock players in.

He had an excellent second half batting .275 and I think he'll hit he ground running. James thinks he wont appear in 100 games this season, and put up 11 HR/6 SB. However, since he's likely to get the starting job, and 550 ABs I think he can be pencilled in for a whole lot more. Taking the ZiPS projection of 365 ABs and extrapolating yields:

AVG .271, 78 R, 23HR, 89 RBI, 8 SB

I think he beats this by cutting down strikeouts and hitting around .280. Giving the following projection:

AVG .280, 81 R, 23 HR, 92 RBI, 9 SB

So with the massive chip on his shoulder, and coming into his power years, Church will capitalize on his opportunities. So in a deep league I think he can put out a few bucks of positive value, and what's more he'll contribute a little in every category. Plenty of upside here, but keep an eye on him in spring training.

Verlander: once lucky, twice hurt

If you are looking for a progression on the numbers from the intellectually solid "Derek Verlander" you are better off spending your money somewhere else. Let's look at the numbers:

1. He had a huge jump in innings pitched in the minors from 129 to 186. For a young pitcher with a great fastball this workload really started to show at the end of the season. He wont be Mark Prior, but like showering with your mouth open, he could leave a bad taste in your mouth.
2. His control is fantastic, but for what he is, I feel he should be striking out far more batters than he does.

3. Expanding on the first point: Verlander had a terrible second half and if you want a less-valid, however more emphatic split have a look at his August numbers:

Post All-star: ERA 4.54/WHIP 1.55

August ERA 6.83/WHIP 1.95

Of course, all of this being said, Verlander still has value, however just don't overpay for a guy who will likely have a couple trips, if not an extended stay on the DL this season.

If you are going to spend an early pick looking for a lock on pitching go with Zambrano, Peavy, or Bonderman a little further along. Peavy dealt with much bad luck, and Bonderman can probably handle the volume and get you 200K and a nice looking ERA.

Chris Duffy - cheap steals

I'm surprised there isn't more talk of him in terms of his viability to make a solid contribution to your fantasy team this season. I can't think of a better lock on an abundance of early season steals. The speed and ability is proven, and he established a much better training regiment to get him geared up for the 2006 season. He struggles to take walks, which may hamper his chances at batting leadoff in the long run, however when he gets on base he becomes an immediate distraction and threat that is likely to have him driving pitchers crazy.

The common hurdle with largely unproven players is, "will he be able to get wrestle time away and get at-bats?" Let's break it down:


1. Duffy has really no competition for the CF starting job. Bautista will strictly see utility use in the outfield and 3B and can't significantly cut into Duffy's at-bats.

2. Jim Tracy loves him. Duffy will get away with batting .260 in the leadoff spot, and if he outperforms that and hits .270 or .280, he wont have trouble staying at the top of the order. With LaRoche batting fifth now that gives him more chances to get knocked in.

3. He doesn't get caught. Some guys get the red light when their success rate isn't high enough, but he put up 39 steals in 110 games between AAA and Pittsburgh. Simple math tells me at that rate that would give around 45-50 steals if he starts 140 games, which I think is a conservative estimate.

He's not going to have an OBP of .400 again, but .370 is doable. He drew 9 walks in September, but that's more an out lier behaviour as you can assume iffy pitching at the end of the year.

You can pencil him in comfortably for 85 runs/.270/.350 and more importantly 40 SB. I'm big on him, and expect more, but I like to temper estimates so even I don't get too excited. He's going in the 200s in some leagues, and undrafted in a most expert drafts. Plenty of upside here with minimal exposure.

Eric Young Jr.

PECOTA is forecasting EY to get 73 steals this year. I hope they mean in AA because I don't know how they expect him to crack the lineup. He put up a record 87 steals this past year in A-ball, however he was caught stealing 31 times...

possible sleeper: Adam Loewen

EDIT - didn't add that 3.2 factor for FIP. I can no longer recommend this guy, he has to get the control issues under control.

Who?

The Canadian is not likely to suffer from anonymity by season's end. On the surface his basic numbers look terrible:

6-6, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP

No one would touch him. Let's take a deeper look:

FIP ERA: 3.45 ... 6.65
K/BF : 19.44% (7.8 K/9)
GB% : 48.48%

Those numbers put him in the same breath with Dave Bush, Roy Oswalt, and Erik Bedard. However, one thing separates them. Loewen still puts too many runners on and with the awful defense behind him last season, this worked out to hurt him quite badly. His K/BB rate was less than 2:1, but he's shown on average 2.5-3 K/BB rates in his fast tracked minor career, the big young lefty stands to make big gains. Home-cooking for the rookie was healthy and as he becomes more comfortable in the league those road numbers will progress as well.

If Loewen keeps his walk rate at less than 2:1, he's worth $1 in mixed leagues. He will regress to the mean in terms of ERA. Add an improving young Orioles lineup featuring young stud Nick Markakis means he has a lot of upside and you don't really need to expose yourself to much risk. You could do much worse in a 5th starter.

Even a bearish projection with 180 IP gives us this crude forecast:

13 wins, 4.10 ERA, WHIP 1.30, 158K
10 wins, 4.70 ERA, WHIP 1.35, 158K

Based on that...don't pick him.