If you are looking for a progression on the numbers from the intellectually solid "Derek Verlander" you are better off spending your money somewhere else. Let's look at the numbers:
1. He had a huge jump in innings pitched in the minors from 129 to 186. For a young pitcher with a great fastball this workload really started to show at the end of the season. He wont be Mark Prior, but like showering with your mouth open, he could leave a bad taste in your mouth.
2. His control is fantastic, but for what he is, I feel he should be striking out far more batters than he does.
3. Expanding on the first point: Verlander had a terrible second half and if you want a less-valid, however more emphatic split have a look at his August numbers:
Post All-star: ERA 4.54/WHIP 1.55
August ERA 6.83/WHIP 1.95
Of course, all of this being said, Verlander still has value, however just don't overpay for a guy who will likely have a couple trips, if not an extended stay on the DL this season.
If you are going to spend an early pick looking for a lock on pitching go with Zambrano, Peavy, or Bonderman a little further along. Peavy dealt with much bad luck, and Bonderman can probably handle the volume and get you 200K and a nice looking ERA.
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