EDIT - didn't add that 3.2 factor for FIP. I can no longer recommend this guy, he has to get the control issues under control.
Who?
The Canadian is not likely to suffer from anonymity by season's end. On the surface his basic numbers look terrible:
6-6, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
No one would touch him. Let's take a deeper look:
FIP ERA: 3.45 ... 6.65
K/BF : 19.44% (7.8 K/9)
GB% : 48.48%
Those numbers put him in the same breath with Dave Bush, Roy Oswalt, and Erik Bedard. However, one thing separates them. Loewen still puts too many runners on and with the awful defense behind him last season, this worked out to hurt him quite badly. His K/BB rate was less than 2:1, but he's shown on average 2.5-3 K/BB rates in his fast tracked minor career, the big young lefty stands to make big gains. Home-cooking for the rookie was healthy and as he becomes more comfortable in the league those road numbers will progress as well.
If Loewen keeps his walk rate at less than 2:1, he's worth $1 in mixed leagues. He will regress to the mean in terms of ERA. Add an improving young Orioles lineup featuring young stud Nick Markakis means he has a lot of upside and you don't really need to expose yourself to much risk. You could do much worse in a 5th starter.
Even a bearish projection with 180 IP gives us this crude forecast:
13 wins, 4.10 ERA, WHIP 1.30, 158K
10 wins, 4.70 ERA, WHIP 1.35, 158K
Based on that...don't pick him.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment