If you are looking for a progression on the numbers from the intellectually solid "Derek Verlander" you are better off spending your money somewhere else. Let's look at the numbers:
1. He had a huge jump in innings pitched in the minors from 129 to 186. For a young pitcher with a great fastball this workload really started to show at the end of the season. He wont be Mark Prior, but like showering with your mouth open, he could leave a bad taste in your mouth.
2. His control is fantastic, but for what he is, I feel he should be striking out far more batters than he does.
3. Expanding on the first point: Verlander had a terrible second half and if you want a less-valid, however more emphatic split have a look at his August numbers:
Post All-star: ERA 4.54/WHIP 1.55
August ERA 6.83/WHIP 1.95
Of course, all of this being said, Verlander still has value, however just don't overpay for a guy who will likely have a couple trips, if not an extended stay on the DL this season.
If you are going to spend an early pick looking for a lock on pitching go with Zambrano, Peavy, or Bonderman a little further along. Peavy dealt with much bad luck, and Bonderman can probably handle the volume and get you 200K and a nice looking ERA.
Saturday, January 27, 2007
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Chris Duffy - cheap steals
I'm surprised there isn't more talk of him in terms of his viability to make a solid contribution to your fantasy team this season. I can't think of a better lock on an abundance of early season steals. The speed and ability is proven, and he established a much better training regiment to get him geared up for the 2006 season. He struggles to take walks, which may hamper his chances at batting leadoff in the long run, however when he gets on base he becomes an immediate distraction and threat that is likely to have him driving pitchers crazy.
The common hurdle with largely unproven players is, "will he be able to get wrestle time away and get at-bats?" Let's break it down:
1. Duffy has really no competition for the CF starting job. Bautista will strictly see utility use in the outfield and 3B and can't significantly cut into Duffy's at-bats.
2. Jim Tracy loves him. Duffy will get away with batting .260 in the leadoff spot, and if he outperforms that and hits .270 or .280, he wont have trouble staying at the top of the order. With LaRoche batting fifth now that gives him more chances to get knocked in.
3. He doesn't get caught. Some guys get the red light when their success rate isn't high enough, but he put up 39 steals in 110 games between AAA and Pittsburgh. Simple math tells me at that rate that would give around 45-50 steals if he starts 140 games, which I think is a conservative estimate.
He's not going to have an OBP of .400 again, but .370 is doable. He drew 9 walks in September, but that's more an out lier behaviour as you can assume iffy pitching at the end of the year.
You can pencil him in comfortably for 85 runs/.270/.350 and more importantly 40 SB. I'm big on him, and expect more, but I like to temper estimates so even I don't get too excited. He's going in the 200s in some leagues, and undrafted in a most expert drafts. Plenty of upside here with minimal exposure.
The common hurdle with largely unproven players is, "will he be able to get wrestle time away and get at-bats?" Let's break it down:
1. Duffy has really no competition for the CF starting job. Bautista will strictly see utility use in the outfield and 3B and can't significantly cut into Duffy's at-bats.
2. Jim Tracy loves him. Duffy will get away with batting .260 in the leadoff spot, and if he outperforms that and hits .270 or .280, he wont have trouble staying at the top of the order. With LaRoche batting fifth now that gives him more chances to get knocked in.
3. He doesn't get caught. Some guys get the red light when their success rate isn't high enough, but he put up 39 steals in 110 games between AAA and Pittsburgh. Simple math tells me at that rate that would give around 45-50 steals if he starts 140 games, which I think is a conservative estimate.
He's not going to have an OBP of .400 again, but .370 is doable. He drew 9 walks in September, but that's more an out lier behaviour as you can assume iffy pitching at the end of the year.
You can pencil him in comfortably for 85 runs/.270/.350 and more importantly 40 SB. I'm big on him, and expect more, but I like to temper estimates so even I don't get too excited. He's going in the 200s in some leagues, and undrafted in a most expert drafts. Plenty of upside here with minimal exposure.
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Eric Young Jr.
PECOTA is forecasting EY to get 73 steals this year. I hope they mean in AA because I don't know how they expect him to crack the lineup. He put up a record 87 steals this past year in A-ball, however he was caught stealing 31 times...
Sunday, January 14, 2007
possible sleeper: Adam Loewen
EDIT - didn't add that 3.2 factor for FIP. I can no longer recommend this guy, he has to get the control issues under control.
Who?
The Canadian is not likely to suffer from anonymity by season's end. On the surface his basic numbers look terrible:
6-6, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
No one would touch him. Let's take a deeper look:
FIP ERA: 3.45 ... 6.65
K/BF : 19.44% (7.8 K/9)
GB% : 48.48%
Those numbers put him in the same breath with Dave Bush, Roy Oswalt, and Erik Bedard. However, one thing separates them. Loewen still puts too many runners on and with the awful defense behind him last season, this worked out to hurt him quite badly. His K/BB rate was less than 2:1, but he's shown on average 2.5-3 K/BB rates in his fast tracked minor career, the big young lefty stands to make big gains. Home-cooking for the rookie was healthy and as he becomes more comfortable in the league those road numbers will progress as well.
If Loewen keeps his walk rate at less than 2:1, he's worth $1 in mixed leagues. He will regress to the mean in terms of ERA. Add an improving young Orioles lineup featuring young stud Nick Markakis means he has a lot of upside and you don't really need to expose yourself to much risk. You could do much worse in a 5th starter.
Even a bearish projection with 180 IP gives us this crude forecast:
13 wins, 4.10 ERA, WHIP 1.30, 158K
10 wins, 4.70 ERA, WHIP 1.35, 158K
Based on that...don't pick him.
Who?
The Canadian is not likely to suffer from anonymity by season's end. On the surface his basic numbers look terrible:
6-6, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
No one would touch him. Let's take a deeper look:
FIP ERA: 3.45 ... 6.65
K/BF : 19.44% (7.8 K/9)
GB% : 48.48%
Those numbers put him in the same breath with Dave Bush, Roy Oswalt, and Erik Bedard. However, one thing separates them. Loewen still puts too many runners on and with the awful defense behind him last season, this worked out to hurt him quite badly. His K/BB rate was less than 2:1, but he's shown on average 2.5-3 K/BB rates in his fast tracked minor career, the big young lefty stands to make big gains. Home-cooking for the rookie was healthy and as he becomes more comfortable in the league those road numbers will progress as well.
If Loewen keeps his walk rate at less than 2:1, he's worth $1 in mixed leagues. He will regress to the mean in terms of ERA. Add an improving young Orioles lineup featuring young stud Nick Markakis means he has a lot of upside and you don't really need to expose yourself to much risk. You could do much worse in a 5th starter.
Even a bearish projection with 180 IP gives us this crude forecast:
13 wins, 4.10 ERA, WHIP 1.30, 158K
10 wins, 4.70 ERA, WHIP 1.35, 158K
Based on that...don't pick him.
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