Yet another prime hitter coming from Japan...I can't seem to find the projection from James on this one, so I'll give a rough estimate of what you can expect from him.
Iwamura turns 28 this week, so he'll be smack in the middle of his power years in Tampa Bay. Matsui is better at taking walks, but looking at him we can see a 30 to 40 point drop-off in average and expect it. Johjima was similar dropping 20 points to his average. I'd also like to touch on his homer numbers as well. The slugging diminutive third basemen's habitat is changing dramatically:
Tokyo; 296 left, 394 centre, 296 right
Tampa; 315 left, 404 centre, 322 right
Long gone are the funky dimensions of his old home, and in with the roomier confines of Tropicana Field. His homer numbers will taper off, 1 HR: 19AB will likely turn into something like 1HR:25AB; accordingly his average may not drop a full 30 points due to the larger field.
I'm calling for a .286 average.
I'm also concerned about his AB totals...right now I'm not comfortable that he gets much more than 500 ABs. I feel that isn't being overly pessimistic or optimistic. Iwamura had some really awful luck about driving guys in last year, and I would lean more in the direction of a correction to his 2005 season numbers.
Plug in these numbers for a modest rookie campaign.
500AB, .286, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 70 R, 8 SB
On draft day there are a plethora, that's right I said plethora, of options at 3B. However, in that packed Tampa infield if Iwamura gets some appearances at 2B or SS during the season (many leagues will add eligibility after one game, others will be five) he becomes much more valuable if he gains 2B eligibility.
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