I'm surprised there isn't more talk of him in terms of his viability to make a solid contribution to your fantasy team this season. I can't think of a better lock on an abundance of early season steals. The speed and ability is proven, and he established a much better training regiment to get him geared up for the 2006 season. He struggles to take walks, which may hamper his chances at batting leadoff in the long run, however when he gets on base he becomes an immediate distraction and threat that is likely to have him driving pitchers crazy.
The common hurdle with largely unproven players is, "will he be able to get wrestle time away and get at-bats?" Let's break it down:
1. Duffy has really no competition for the CF starting job. Bautista will strictly see utility use in the outfield and 3B and can't significantly cut into Duffy's at-bats.
2. Jim Tracy loves him. Duffy will get away with batting .260 in the leadoff spot, and if he outperforms that and hits .270 or .280, he wont have trouble staying at the top of the order. With LaRoche batting fifth now that gives him more chances to get knocked in.
3. He doesn't get caught. Some guys get the red light when their success rate isn't high enough, but he put up 39 steals in 110 games between AAA and Pittsburgh. Simple math tells me at that rate that would give around 45-50 steals if he starts 140 games, which I think is a conservative estimate.
He's not going to have an OBP of .400 again, but .370 is doable. He drew 9 walks in September, but that's more an out lier behaviour as you can assume iffy pitching at the end of the year.
You can pencil him in comfortably for 85 runs/.270/.350 and more importantly 40 SB. I'm big on him, and expect more, but I like to temper estimates so even I don't get too excited. He's going in the 200s in some leagues, and undrafted in a most expert drafts. Plenty of upside here with minimal exposure.
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